So it looks like China will dethrone the mighty U.S. as the world’s biggest economy by 2028, five years earlier than previous estimates due to the night & day difference in recovery processes between the two countries.
“For some time, an overarching theme of global economics has been the economic and soft power struggle between the United States and China,” the Centre for Economics and Business Research noted in its annual report published Saturday. “The pandemic and corresponding economic fallout have certainly tipped this rivalry in China’s favor.”
The CEBR said China’s “skillful management of the pandemic”, with its rigid early lockdown, and a subsequent gut-punch to long-term growth in the West meant China’s relative economic performance had levitated. China seemed primed for average economic growth of 5.7% a year from 2021-25 before slowing to 4.5% a year from 2026-30. SoftBank’s $525 Million SPAC IPO
While the United States was likely to have a robust post-pandy bounce back in 2021, its growth would slow to 1.9% a year between 2022 and 2024, and then to 1.6% after that. Japan would stay put as the world’s third-biggest economy, in dollar terms, until the early 2030s when it would be supplanted by India, pushing Germany down from fourth to fifth.
Here and now, the United Kingdom sits as the fifth-biggest economy by the CEBR’s measure, but would slip to sixth place in 2024. However, despite a hit in 2021 from its parting from the European Union’s single market, British GDP in dollars was anticipated to be 23% higher than France’s by 2035, bolstered by Britain’s head start in the ever-growing digital currency space. SEC Comes Down on XRP
Europe made up for 19% of output in the top 10 global economies in 2020, but that’ll dip to 12% by 2035, or lower if there is a catty breakup between the EU and Britain. Make no mistake, the pandy’s impact on the global economy was likely to rear its head in higher inflation, not slower growth.
“We see an economic cycle with rising interest rates in the mid-2020s,” it said, posing a challenge for governments which have borrowed massively to fund their response to the COVID-19 crisis. “But the underlying trends that have been accelerated by this point to a greener and more tech-based world as we move into the 2030s.” Surprise, Surprise: Coinbase Files IPO